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Showing posts from May, 2022

What is a base rate neglect?

   Definition of base rate neglect Ignoring the base rate refers to a cognitive bias that ignores probabilities and makes judgments contrary to statistics. Ignoring the base rate is also called the base rate error. Characteristics of base rate neglect   Base rate neglect results in ignoring statistics and making judgments based on impressive subjective experience.   Base rate neglect makes you judge based on your own stereotypes. Base rate neglect is also related to the representativeness heuristic. Information that comes to mind is given priority over statistics. Example of base rate neglect There are people who read the financial newspaper every day and look at the stock market every day. What kind of job is this person likely to have? 1. This person is most likely a Wall Street brokerage analyst. 2. This person is most likely a student. The answer is number two. Because of their descriptions of economic newspapers and the stock market, you are likely to think of them as securities a

What is a hyperbolic discounting?

   The definition of hyperbolic discounting  Hyperbolic discounting ​​refers to a cognitive bias that values ​​present values ​​high and future values ​​low. It is also called present bias because it places more weight on the present. Characteristics of hyperbolic discounting    Due to hyperbolic discounting, they think differently about the value of money received now and money received in the future.    If the two rewards are similar, we think the current reward is valued more than future reward.   Hyperbolic discounting arises from uncertainty about the future. Let's look at the old ways of human survival. In the era of hunting, the food of today was more valuable than the food of the future. In other words, hyperbolic discounting was a means of survival. An example of hyperbolic discounting An example of hyperbolic discounting is a discount coupon that does not make much difference. Which of these two coupons would you choose? Usually, you choose the former from the above two c

What is a planning fallacy?

 The definition of Planning fallacy   Planning fallacy refers to a cognitive bias that leads to errors in planning by thinking optimistically when making plans. Because you plan optimistically, in reality your plans will be disrupted. Influenced by the wishful thinking bias. Characteristics of planning fallacy    It has to do with lazy perfectionists. Because it actually takes longer than you planned.    Due to planning fallacies, you overestimate yourself and underestimate the cost or time of planning.    Planning fallacies make it difficult to prevent even the worst-case scenario.   Examples of planning fallacies Planning fallacies can lead to unrealistic optimism when making plans. City A, which intends to construct the subway, has set a budget of 10 billion dallor and a construction period of 5 years. However, since the construction is carried out for about a year, the construction period is expected to take about 7 years, and the budget is said to require an additional 3 billion d

What is a conjunction fallacy?

   What is a conjunction fallacy?  Conjunction fallacy refers to a cognitive bias caused by incorrectly calculating probabilities. It is a judgment based on subjective probability rather than objective probability. Conjunction fallacies are also called federation fallacy, connection fallacy. Characteristics of conjunction fallacy     Intuitive judgment is possible due to conjunction fallacy. (However, it is most likely not accurate.)    Conjunction fallacies lead to errors in probability calculations because intuitive thinking instead of rational thinking.    Because of the conjunction fallacy, we mistakenly think that (probability of event) x (probability of event) is greater than (probability of event).   Examples of conjunction fallacies   Due to the conjunction fallacy, you can make irrational judgments in real life as shown below. While waiting for the roller-coasters, the person next to you is playing a mobile game happily. Which of the following is that person is most likely to

What is overcome bias?

  What is outcome bias? Outcome bias refers to cognitive bias in ignoring processes and judging outcomes based on whether the outcome is positive or negative. Characteristics of outcome bias      Because of outcome bias, we ignore the process and judge only by the outcome.      Outcome bias causes you to simply focus on whether the outcome is positive or negative.      If a rational choice at the time has negative consequences due to outcome bias, it is mistaken for an irrational choice.   Examples of Outcome bias   An example of outcome bias is every choice you make on a daily basis. Results bias can occur when a choice that was good at the time but has bad results today, or a choice that was bad at the time but has good results now. Outcome bias three-line summary  -Outcome bias refers to a cognitive bias that ignores the process and judges only the outcome. -Due to outcome bias, even a rational choice will be judged as a result. -Outcome bias occ

What is narcissism?

    Definition of narcissism In severe narcissism, Narcissism stands for Narcissistic Personality Disorder. Narcissism originated in the story of Narcissus in Greek and Roman mythology. Characteristics of narcissism      Narcissists envy an exaggerated image of themselves.     Narcissism, when in excess, can lead to Narcissistic Personality Disorder.     Narcissists are often caused by trauma or betrayal from the past.     Narcissism is easy to see in modern society.     Excessive narcissism seeks to control others. Narcissists compel their own thoughts into others.     Narcissists have an excess of self-image. Narcissists think their thoughts or actions are better than others.     Narcissists are not good at empathizing with others.     Narcissists do not feel guilty or ashamed.     Narcissists crave power and fame excessively.     Narcissism can also be viewed as false confidence. Narcissism arises from the gap between their ideals and reality.     Narcissists have a sense of inferio

What is false dilemma fallacy?

  What is the false dilemma fallacy?   The false dilemma fallacy is an informal fallacy. False dilemma fallacy refers to making binary judgments like A and not A. An extreme composition is caused by false dilemma fallacy. Characteristics of false dilemma fallacy  The false dilemma fallacy is an informal fallacy. The false dilemma fallacy is mainly error-prone with extreme dichotomies such as "morality and immorality, strong and weak". The only time a dichotomy makes sense is when a clear dichotomy can be used. The false dilemma fallacy often occurs when logical contradictions are discovered or disadvantaged. An example of the False dilemma fallacy   "Everything we do is right. Anyone who criticizes us is immoral." The example above is an example of a typical False dilemma fallacy. Most of the elements that people make up, whether human or group, cannot be simply divided into a dichotomy between good and evil. Humans and groups are three-dimensional beings. In other

What is Moralist Fallacy?

    Definition of the moralistic fallacy The moralistic fallacy refers to the informal fallacy that draws conclusions from moral premises. The moralistic fallacy leads to ignoring scientific facts. Characteristics of the moralistic fallacy   The moralistic fallacyis an error that is justified. The moralistic fallacy can be seen as an inversion of the naturalistic fallacy. It creates the error of ignoring scientific facts or truth in making conclusions based on moral judgment. The moralistic fallacy frequently occurs in those who advocate political correctness (PC). An example of the moralistic fallacy  "All human beings are equal. Therefore, all human beings do not differ in their abilities." The above example is an example of a typical moralistic fallacy. The difference between human equality and ability is irrelevant. It is a moral error that the moral justification that "all humans are equal" comes out and the distorted conclusion that "therefore, there is n