Skip to main content

What is overcome bias?

    목차

 


What is outcome bias?



Outcome bias refers to cognitive bias in ignoring processes and judging outcomes based on whether the outcome is positive or negative.



Characteristics of outcome bias


    Because of outcome bias, we ignore the process and judge only by the outcome.

    Outcome bias causes you to simply focus on whether the outcome is positive or negative.
    If a rational choice at the time has negative consequences due to outcome bias, it is mistaken for an irrational choice.

 


Examples of Outcome bias



 

An example of outcome bias is every choice you make on a daily basis. Results bias can occur when a choice that was good at the time but has bad results today, or a choice that was bad at the time but has good results now.


Outcome bias three-line summary 

-Outcome bias refers to a cognitive bias that ignores the process and judges only the outcome.

-Due to outcome bias, even a rational choice will be judged as a result.

-Outcome bias occurs in all judgments.


이 글도 관심 있으실 것 같아요!

What is Pseudocertainty effect?

  Definition of Pseudocertainty effect The pseudocertainty effect refers to the phenomenon of mistaking the uncertain for the certain. Because it is false certainty, it is also called the quasi-certainty effect or the false certainty effect. Features of the Pseudocertainty effect     The Pseudocertainty effect creates a tendency to ignore probabilities.     The Pseudocertainty effect makes it impossible to make rational judgments about probabilities.     The Pseudocertainty effect leads to hasty decisions. Examples of Pseudocertainty effects   The Pseudocertainty effect is easily seen in advertising or marketing. Most of the events that are written as 100% winning like the above phrase require additional conditions. Alternatively, the quality or price of the product itself may be different. For example,   As such, the smartphone or smartwatch that many people want is given to only a small fraction of the lottery, and 100 points are given to all participants, giving the phrase 100% winn

What is a base rate neglect?

   Definition of base rate neglect Ignoring the base rate refers to a cognitive bias that ignores probabilities and makes judgments contrary to statistics. Ignoring the base rate is also called the base rate error. Characteristics of base rate neglect   Base rate neglect results in ignoring statistics and making judgments based on impressive subjective experience.   Base rate neglect makes you judge based on your own stereotypes. Base rate neglect is also related to the representativeness heuristic. Information that comes to mind is given priority over statistics. Example of base rate neglect There are people who read the financial newspaper every day and look at the stock market every day. What kind of job is this person likely to have? 1. This person is most likely a Wall Street brokerage analyst. 2. This person is most likely a student. The answer is number two. Because of their descriptions of economic newspapers and the stock market, you are likely to think of them as securities a

What is a conjunction fallacy?

   What is a conjunction fallacy?  Conjunction fallacy refers to a cognitive bias caused by incorrectly calculating probabilities. It is a judgment based on subjective probability rather than objective probability. Conjunction fallacies are also called federation fallacy, connection fallacy. Characteristics of conjunction fallacy     Intuitive judgment is possible due to conjunction fallacy. (However, it is most likely not accurate.)    Conjunction fallacies lead to errors in probability calculations because intuitive thinking instead of rational thinking.    Because of the conjunction fallacy, we mistakenly think that (probability of event) x (probability of event) is greater than (probability of event).   Examples of conjunction fallacies   Due to the conjunction fallacy, you can make irrational judgments in real life as shown below. While waiting for the roller-coasters, the person next to you is playing a mobile game happily. Which of the following is that person is most likely to