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What is Pseudocertainty effect?

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Definition of Pseudocertainty effect



The pseudocertainty effect refers to the phenomenon of mistaking the uncertain for the certain. Because it is false certainty, it is also called the quasi-certainty effect or the false certainty effect.


Features of the Pseudocertainty effect



    The Pseudocertainty effect creates a tendency to ignore probabilities.
    The Pseudocertainty effect makes it impossible to make rational judgments about probabilities.
    The Pseudocertainty effect leads to hasty decisions.


Examples of Pseudocertainty effects

 




The Pseudocertainty effect is easily seen in advertising or marketing. Most of the events that are written as 100% winning like the above phrase require additional conditions. Alternatively, the quality or price of the product itself may be different. For example,


 



As such, the smartphone or smartwatch that many people want is given to only a small fraction of the lottery, and 100 points are given to all participants, giving the phrase 100% winning. This is how to use the Pseudocertainty effect in an advertisement.


This is because you can induce participation by claiming that you will win 100% through the Pseudocertainty effect.


A three-line summary of the Pseudocertainty effect


 



    The Pseudocertainty effect refers to a cognitive bias that confuses uncertainty with certainty
    Due to the Pseudocertainty effect, we ignore probability and make emotional judgments.
    The Pseudocertainty effect is very useful in advertising or marketing.

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What is a base rate neglect?

   Definition of base rate neglect Ignoring the base rate refers to a cognitive bias that ignores probabilities and makes judgments contrary to statistics. Ignoring the base rate is also called the base rate error. Characteristics of base rate neglect   Base rate neglect results in ignoring statistics and making judgments based on impressive subjective experience.   Base rate neglect makes you judge based on your own stereotypes. Base rate neglect is also related to the representativeness heuristic. Information that comes to mind is given priority over statistics. Example of base rate neglect There are people who read the financial newspaper every day and look at the stock market every day. What kind of job is this person likely to have? 1. This person is most likely a Wall Street brokerage analyst. 2. This person is most likely a student. The answer is number two. Because of their descriptions of economic newspapers and the stock market, you are likely to think of them as securities a