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What is a planning fallacy?


 The definition of Planning fallacy

Planning fallacy refers to a cognitive bias that leads to errors in planning by thinking optimistically when making plans. Because you plan optimistically, in reality your plans will be disrupted. Influenced by the wishful thinking bias.

Characteristics of planning fallacy

   It has to do with lazy perfectionists. Because it actually takes longer than you planned.

   Due to planning fallacies, you overestimate yourself and underestimate the cost or time of planning.

   Planning fallacies make it difficult to prevent even the worst-case scenario.


Examples of planning fallacies

Planning fallacies can lead to unrealistic optimism when making plans.

City A, which intends to construct the subway, has set a budget of 10 billion dallor and a construction period of 5 years.

However, since the construction is carried out for about a year, the construction period is expected to take about 7 years, and the budget is said to require an additional 3 billion dallor.

It is said that the construction period of about 5 years is expected to take about 10 years, and the budget is said to cost an additional 7 billion dallor.

These planning fallacies result in additional budget and time consuming.

Three line summary of planning fallacies

-Planning fallacies make you think optimistically.
-You overestimate yourself due to planning fallacies and underestimate the cost or time of your planning.

-Planning fallacies are caused by wishful thinking bias.

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